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Pick your monetary metaphor - Учебно-методический комплекс по программе минимум Кандидатского экзамена по специальности


^ Pick your monetary metaphor
Unlike some central bankers, Mr Issing loves to be challenged, so he invited Don Kohn, a governor of the Fed, to tackle the ECB view that a central bank should sometimes “lean against the wind” to prevent an asset bubble inflating, by tightening policy by more than inflation alone would require. Mr Kohn argued the usual Fed line: because of huge uncertainties, it is too risky to respond to bubbles and therefore it is safer to “mop up” by easing policy after a bubble bursts. He tried to present the Fed's approach to asset prices as the neutral one, ie, less activist than the ECB's. But that is misleading. There is no such thing as “doing nothing”. Under the Fed's approach, unfettered liquidity sustains a bubble.

This link between money and asset prices is why the ECB'S twin-pillar framework may be one of the best ways for central banks to deal with asset prices. A growing body of academic evidence, most notably from economists at the Bank for International Settlements, suggests that monetary aggregates do contain useful information. Rapid growth in the money supply can often signal the build-up of unsustainable financial imbalances, as well as incipient inflation.


TEXT 28

Nor is it just marketing people who are getting excited. For the duration of the tournament most German states will liberalise shopping hours, and the government is even thinking of deploying the army around stadiums for the first time in the Bundeswehr's history. Germans, it seems, are taking the World Cup extremely seriously—and not just because most of them are passionate football fans. “The last time the world paid so much attention to Germany was 16 years ago when the [Berlin] Wall came down,” says Angela Merkel, the country's new chancellor.

Germany aims to use the attention generated by this world-class event to repair its battered image. “Made in Germany” has long since lost its ring; now government and big business have teamed up in a campaign to sell the country as the “Land of Ideas”. In Berlin, where the World Cup final will be played, visitors will be treated to a “Walk of Ideas” through the capital, complete with oversized sculptures of German inventions.

The hope is that a victory, or at least a respectable result, will help cure the collective depression that descended on Germany when the economy started to sag at the beginning of this decade—just as winning the 1954 World Cup, held in Switzerland, helped to heal the national psyche after the war and kicked off the Wirtschaftswunder (the post-war economic miracle). The Wunder von Bern, as the unexpected victory came to be known, helped to restore Germans' battered pride in their country.

What are the chances that a Wunder von Berlin might kick off a similar cultural and economic rebirth? The answer depends on your perspective. Germany today is like one of those pictures where, depending on how you tilt it, you see two different images. In exports, it is already world-class. Many of its global companies have never been more competitive. With exports of nearly $1 trillion in 2005, this medium-sized country (smaller than the American state of Montana, but with 82m people) already sells more goods in the world market than any other.

TEXT 29

Investment and domestic demand are also picking up at last, so Germany's economic outlook at home, too, has brightened. “In case you missed it, Germany is no longer the sick man of Europe,” says Elga Bartsch, an economist at Morgan Stanley, an investment bank. In 2006, she predicts, the country's economy will grow by 1.8%, the highest rate since 2000 and in line with the European average. But the labour market does not seem to have turned the corner yet: in January, unemployment before seasonal adjustment again hit 5m, or 12.1% of the workforce.


Perhaps most importantly, after years of chronic depression, the mood is much improved. According to the Allensbach Institute, a polling organisation, 45% of Germans now say that they are hopeful for 2006 (see chart 1). Business sentiment has not been so good since the new-economy bubble. Politicians, too, have changed their tune since last autumn's election that ushered in a grand coalition. The new-year address by Angela Merkel struck an upbeat note. “I want to encourage us to find out what we are capable of,” she told her fellow Germans. “I am convinced we will be surprised.” Look at the country from a different angle, however, as this survey will do, and it becomes clear that even if it won the World Cup for the first time since 1990, it would have plenty left to do. Germany may be in better shape than France or Italy, and many other countries would love to have its problems, but that does not mean it is in robust health. Most importantly, if it does not start tackling its structural problems in earnest soon, it may find itself stuck with something its people dread: amerikanische Verhältnisse, or “American conditions”, code for a socially polarised society in which workers are hired and fired at an employer's whim.


TEXT 30

The risk is that Germany's labour market, in particular, will end up “Americanised”, but without the good points of the American one, such as its openness and inclusiveness, argues Wolfgang Streeck, head of the Cologne-based Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. In many areas, he says, the German story has been one of “a high average and a low standard deviation”: a rich society with wealth and opportunity fairly spread, with few outliers at either end of the scale. But increasingly, he says, the story is turning into one of “a low average and an exploding standard deviation”.

If think-tanks have their numbers right, Germany has already ceased to be the “equitable middle-class society” that other social scientists have described, offering a “social elevator” for everybody. When it comes to social justice, Germany is already doing less well than many other European countries, according to a recent study by BerlinPolis. For instance, the risk of poverty has greatly increased in recent years, especially for the young. About a fifth of Germans under 16 now live in households with incomes below the poverty-risk threshold.

The fault does not lie primarily with globalisation and the “locusts”, as many Germans have taken to calling foreign investors. Rather, it is the very systems meant to guarantee a well-balanced society, along with the attempts to preserve them, that are increasingly dividing German society. Those systems now serve vested interests, driving a wedge between well-provided-for insiders and marginalised outsiders.

This survey will describe the ways in which Germany's institutions have slid from virtue to vice: in politics, in the labour market, in education, in competition policy and elsewhere. It is not that the country has not tried to change. But most of these changes have been designed to optimise existing systems rather than change them fundamentally.

TEXT 31

This survey will journey through a country struggling with change, passing through Berlin, Stuttgart, Nuremberg, Cologne and Frankfurt. It will note that in some ways the future has already arrived: it is simply distributed unevenly. Much of it can be found in places where you might least expect it—such as in the eastern city of Jena, where the journey ends.

SINCE the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in June 2004, the course of American monetary policy has been clear. From its low of 1%, the federal funds rate has been lifted, in quarter-point steps, at 14 consecutive Fed meetings. Alan Greenspan's dominance of the Fed's policy committee has been equally unambiguous. Now the way ahead is less obvious. America's central bank has a new captain, Ben Bernanke, several new crew members and an increasingly uncertain course to steer.

After all those rises, economists reckon that at 4.5% the federal funds rate is close to “neutral”—ie, neither stimulating the economy nor holding it back. Now the central bankers must decide how much higher rates should go and how to explain their thinking to financial markets. Stop too soon and inflation, already close to the top of the Fed's informal comfort zone, could become a problem. Raise rates too far or fail to make the strategy clear, and the consequences for America's unbalanced, debt-laden economy could be calamitous.

On March 27th Mr Bernanke will chair his first two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the central bank's rate-setting body. Financial markets believe that another quarter-point rise is almost inevitable. Less obvious is how the change in the leadership and composition of the FOMC (which consists of the Fed's board of governors and the presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks, not all of whom vote) will influence monetary policy thereafter.



TEXT 32

Though Mr Bernanke's arrival is the most important, it is not the committee's only change. Roger Ferguson, vice-chairman since 1997, is leaving and will not take part next week. Nor will a non-voting member, Anthony Santomero, departing president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Two new governors, recently appointed by George Bush, will make their debuts: Randy Kroszner, a respected economist from the University of Chicago and former member of Mr Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, and Kevin Warsh, a young White House aide.

Those prone to worry have pointed out that the board is short of expertise in monetary policy. Mr Bernanke and Don Kohn, an experienced central banker, are the only members with backgrounds in the field. Mr Kroszner is an able academic, but his specialities are banking and financial regulation. Much more alarming, Mr Warsh is seen as a shockingly lightweight appointment.

This may not matter much. Mr Bernanke has a stronger academic background than any of his predecessors. Several of the regional Fed presidents are able macroeconomists, notably Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Taken as a whole, the FOMC has the necessary intellectual calibre.

What may be missing, now that Messrs Greenspan and Ferguson have gone, is experience of managing crises. Mr Ferguson was the man in charge on September 11th, 2001. Now Mr Kohn and Tim Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a Treasury official in the Clinton administration, are the only veterans of turbulent times. But maybe not too much should be made even of this. Mr Greenspan, after all, made his name as a steady man in a crisis for his handling of the 1987 stockmarket crash, shortly after he took the chair. If push comes to shove, Mr Bernanke could win a similar reputation.


TEXT 33

Luckily, there is no crisis in close sight. The Fed's main task is to recalibrate its monetary strategy. Mr Bernanke is known to favour an explicit inflation target, an idea embraced by other central banks but not by the Fed, so there has been plenty of speculation about how fast he might move in that direction. Not very, is the likely answer. Mr Bernanke has made clear he seeks no sudden change in the Fed's operations. His tactic seems to be to suggest to Americans the virtues of such a target, meanwhile nudging the FOMC into gradual reform, such as publishing more frequent policy forecasts and fuller statements explaining interest-rate policy.

Good communication will be a priority. In recent weeks the central bankers have said that their decisions have become more “data dependent” now that interest rates are near neutral. What does that mean? Mr Bernanke's comments suggest that the Fed will be looking at a wide variety of economic indicators to work out how they might affect not only the next interest-rate decision move, but also the central bank's longer-term forecasts.

That might seem obvious. The trouble is that America's economy is sending conflicting signals. Some numbers, such as the low saving rate and the colossal current-account deficit, suggest that the economy's course is unsustainable. Despite the Fed's rate rises, overall financial conditions have remained loose: bond yields, in particular, have stayed unusually low, though they have picked up lately (see chart). The latest statistics say that while the economy is, if anything, proving stronger than expected, inflation remains surprisingly tame.

Although the housing market may be slowing, consumption is booming and companies' investment has picked up. Although unemployment is low (the rate is 4.8%) and oil prices are high, inflationary pressures are modest. In the last three months of 2005, core consumer-price inflation (ie, excluding food and energy) was running at an annualised 2.6%. In the three months to February 2006 it fell to 2%.

TEXT 34

Lately FOMC members have sounded uncertain about what such oddities—especially low long-term interest rates—might mean for policy. In a speech on March 20th, Mr Bernanke analysed reasons why yields might be so thin. Different causes, he said, have different implications for the Fed. If yields are low because investors demand less compensation for holding long-term assets, then financial conditions have become looser and the central bank, other things being equal, needs to continue tightening. But if yields are low because of an increase in global saving relative to opportunities for investment, the central bank would need to tighten less.

For now, the FOMC thinks that the risk of inflation outweighs that of weaker overall demand. Although Mr Bernanke admits that the housing market is a risk, he seems less concerned about the effect of lower house prices than his predecessor was. Last year Mr Greenspan gave several warnings that a slowdown in the housing market could hurt consumption. Mr Bernanke appears to think mortgage-equity withdrawal less important in boosting spending than Mr Greenspan did, and to believe that solid wage and job growth are now supporting consumption. He seems confident that even if interest rates continue to rise, the effect on households' mortgage costs will be gradual.

That said, the central bankers' worries about inflation have been eased by the failure of high oil prices to stoke core inflation. The bankers also seem sanguine about the tightness of the labour market. Profit margins are fat, so firms should be able to absorb higher wages without raising prices.

What all this means for short-term interest rates is unclear. The markets expect that rates will rise once more after next week and then stay at 5% for a while. But if the economy is as resilient to weaker house prices as Mr Bernanke seems to believe, rates might have to go up again. If spending is dragged lower, rates might be too. Whichever happens, Mr Bernanke must pick his course with care.

TEXT 35

FEW British companies look less vulnerable to takeover than Tesco, a supermarket chain that is no one's idea of a shrinking violet. Yet this week Tesco approached the bond markets with an unusual lure to creditors. Its long-term bonds included a covenant that would protect bondholders' interests in the unlikely event that Tesco is gobbled up.

Bankers say it is not the first time that Tesco's bonds have included such a “change of control” clause. Other big companies, even if they seem just as safe as Tesco, are being pressed by creditors to follow its lead.

There are two reasons why. First is the pace and scale of takeover activity around the world, with bidders employing cheap debt in colossal volumes. Second, creditors that have lent with few strings attached in recent, easy-money years are learning to be a bit more demanding.

Change-of-control protection offers them valuable peace of mind. Whereas shareholders mostly relish the thought that a company they own might be on the receiving end of a bid, bondholders are terrified by it. Usually, it means a load of new debt, relegating their claims and cutting the price of their bonds. The very attributes that attract bondholders to a borrower, such as large, stable cashflow to service debt, are the same that entice a leveraged buy-out (LBO) fund. So without change-of-control safeguards, the danger of being blindsided is growing.

According to Louise Purtle, a strategist at CreditSights, a research boutique, two of the biggest recent deals in America, last year's $11.4 billion LBO of SunGard Data Systems, and Koch Industries' takeover of Georgia-Pacific, both gave bondholders an unwelcome surprise. They had assumed the target companies' size made them impregnable. In Europe KPN, a Dutch telecommunications group, sold bonds last week which included a change-of-control clause—a “sine qua non”, says one Latin-speaking banker, because of the risk of a buy-out.

TEXT 36

And last month BAA, operator of London's biggest airports, faced a possible takeover bid just as it was issuing bonds with no change-of-control clause. An outcry by bondholders forced it to insert protection at the last minute. “BAA opened people's eyes,” says David Brickman, an analyst at Lehman Brothers.

The threat of a takeover should not be bondholders' only worry. Trevor Pritchard, of Standard & Poor's, a rating agency, notes that apart from the new fashion for change-of-control clauses, covenants remain weak. He says that bondholders are not arming themselves against other risks—for example, that borrowers take on more debt or sell assets to return cash to shareholders. Such “shareholder-friendly” tactics are on the rise after years in which companies have favoured bondholders by paying down debt.

Only now are rating agencies alerting bondholders to the dangers of this. This week Fitch, a rival of S&P's, warned that the American food industry's ratings will come into question as it tries to boost shareholder returns at the expense of more debt and attracts interest from private-equity firms.

Such warnings are beginning to be heeded. Analysts talk of a growing “bifurcation” in credit markets, with bondholders avoiding industries, such as food and telecommunications, that look like potential LBO hunting grounds. Instead they are fleeing to safer pastures, such as banks.

What of a more general concern, that the credit cycle is on the turn? With central banks draining liquidity, you might think lenders would be readying themselves for tighter conditions, even though default rates remain low.

So far, there is precious little sign of this. The tide of money flowing into the credit markets as a whole shows no sign of receding. Even carmakers' bonds, long the least popular bit of the market, rallied briefly this week, on the hope that General Motors might be closer to a sale of GMAC, its financing arm.

TEXT 37

Partly, the continuing flood is explained by the health of corporate profits in America and Europe: because they are generating more cash, companies can service more debt. Partly, it is explained by the still huge appetite of pension funds and others for higher-yielding assets.

For creditors, the risk of losses has been mitigated by the flourishing market for credit-default swaps, which provide insurance against default. Some of this insurance will not be worth much if a global credit crunch finally hits. But for many investors, that's still a big if.

IF YOU were charitable, you would say it had the elegance of simplicity. If you weren't, you'd call it obvious. The “carry trade” is, however, one of the most talked-about trading strategies of recent times.

The favourite subject of the masters of capitalism has much in common with the dinner-table topic of choice in large parts of the English-speaking world: making money from the property market. Both involve borrowing cheaply to buy something with a higher expected return. The carry traders, however, have travelled further than housebuyers in pursuit of lucre. Lately, they have gone to Japan, to borrow yen for next to nothing, convert it into other currencies, and buy anything from emerging-market stocks to gold, property and Kenyan shillings. While it has lasted, the trade has brought an air of old-fashioned derring-do to international capital markets; after all, as long as the yen holds steady or depreciates, it is hard to lose. But the end of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, signalled this week, might make the carry trade look a good deal riskier. This gives speculators the willies. Some, theatrically, believe it could cause the “avian flu” of global financial markets.




TEXT 37

But even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has said policy will be less loose, it is unlikely to raise interest rates fast enough to kill the carry trade. Futures markets forecast that short-term rates will be only 0.25% or so later this year. That is still below what investors can earn elsewhere; and the BoJ might not raise rates at all.

Data compiled by Tony Norfield, a currency strategist at ABN AMRO, a Dutch bank, indicate that in December the extent of yen borrowing was in any case only one-sixth of what it had been at the peak of carry-trade fever in 1998. Mr Norfield believes that, because it dare not snuff out Japan's nascent recovery, the BoJ will tighten policy only very slowly. “It is premature in the extreme to say the yen will rally big time,” he says.

Even if they carry on regardless, the world's investors still have good reason to be cautious about Japan. First, Japanese corporations' years of deleveraging, which have helped fuel the global liquidity glut, may be ending, says John Richards of Barclays Capital in Tokyo. That may affect Japanese demand for foreign assets, such as American Treasuries.

Second, the BoJ has been responsible, along with America's Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, for an exceptionally long period of unusually accommodative monetary policy. The other two have already begun to tighten. If policy becomes still tighter all round, it is hard to see global bond yields staying at their recent low levels (see chart). And third, investors might ask whether it is worth hunting out high-yielding assets in emerging markets and leveraged credit markets, if they can get attractive returns in safer places.

Such thoughts may already be permeating global bond markets, where yields on ten-year American Treasuries, German bunds and Japanese government bonds have risen in recent weeks. Further rises could be unsettling in a global economy where consumers, governments and many buy-out firms are leveraged to the gills.

^ ТРЕБОВАНИЯ К СЛОВАРЮ


1. Словарь аспирантов (соискателей) содержит краткое объяснение слов и терминов, встречающихся в научно-популярной, художественной, специальной литературе на английском языке.

2. Словарь составляется из наиболее часто встречающихся терминов.

3. Некоторую часть данного индивидуального словаря составляют группы слов и терминов, которые являются общими для применения в специальной литературе.

4. Словарь должен быть пополнен новыми научными терминами, получившими распространение в связи с совершенствованием производства и развитием рыночных отношений.

5. Словарь является терминологическим толковым (глоссарием).

6. Словарь должен включать сокращения и аббревиатуры, снабженные их толкованием.


^ ФОРМА ПРОТОКОЛА


«УТВЕРЖДАЮ»

Ректор ______________________А.В. Коршунов

«_____» декабря 2005г.

ПРОТОКОЛ
Заседания экзаменационной комиссии от «__» декабря 2005г.


^ СОСТАВ КОМИССИИ:

(фамилия, инициалы, ученая степень, звание, должности)

Председатель комиссии Ильин С.Ю., к.т.н., проректор по учебной и научной работе;

Зам председателя экзаменационной комиссии Зайцев Г.Г., д.э.н., зав. кафедрой менеджмента;

Члены комиссии:

  1. Бархатов И.А., к.соц.н., доцент;

  2. Волокобинский М.Ю., д.т.н., профессор кафедры МиЕНД;

  3. Мелешкин Г.Л., к.фил.н., ст. преподаватель каф. гуманитарных дисциплин;

  4. Семенова Г.П., к.фил.н, зав. каф. гуманитарных дисциплин.

(Утвержден приказом № 77 асп/05у от 06 июня 2005г.)

По приему кандидатского экзамена по иностранному языку – немецкий язык, специальность 08.00.05 «Экономика и управление народным хозяйством» от _______________________________________

Основная программа утверждена коллегией ВАК в 2002г.


СЛУШАЛИ:

Прием кандидатского экзамена по иностранному языку – немецкий язык. Билет №_______________

На экзамене были заданы вопросы:

1. Чтение и перевод со словарем немецкого текста по специальности:

____________________________________________________________________________________

2. Перевод русского текста по специальности на немецкий язык со словарем:

____________________________________________________________________________________

3. Пересказ в форме резюме содержание прочитанной монографии или сборник статей

____________________________________________________________________________________

  1. Беседа о научной работе на немецком языке ____________________________________________



ПОСТАНОВИЛИ:

Считать, что Мурыгин Сергей Вадимович выдержал экзамен с ОЦЕНКОЙ _________________________________________________

Председатель экзаменационной комиссии Ильин С.Ю., к.т.н., проректор по учебной и научной работе _______________________________________________________________

(подпись)

Зам. председателя экзаменационной комиссии Зайцев Г.Г., д.э.н., зав. кафедрой менеджмента __________________________________________________________________

(подпись)

Члены экзаменационной комиссии:

  1. Бархатов И.А., к.соц.н., доцент: __________________________________________________

  2. Волокобинский М.Ю., д.т.н., профессор кафедры МиЕНД: _____________________________

  3. Мелешкин Г.Л., к.фил.н., ст. преподаватель каф. гуманитарных дисциплин ________________

  4. Семенова Г.П., к.фил.н, зав. каф. гуманитарных дисциплин: ____________________________

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